We have an idea of what the current power balance in the Pac-12 conference is, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the records at the end of the 2022 season will reflect everyone’s perceived standing going into the year.

There is a reason that these teams play the games.

While we may think that Team A is better than Team B, there’s a good chance that Team B has an easier record than Team A, which may lead to them winning more games and having a better end to the season when all is said and done.

To try and see where a scenario like this may come into play, we broke down the strength of schedule for every school in the Pac-12 to look at their upcoming slate of games and determine which schools may have an easier path to success than others.

So how did we go about determining the strength of schedule for each team? Let’s break down the process. It started with getting a value for each team, and each opponent. To do this, we used the ESPN Football Power Index, where they rank each team in the FBS and assign them a number that “measures a team’s strength on a net point scale; expected point margin vs. average opponent on a neutral field.” Here is how the Pac-12 FPI numbers rank:

From there, it was all about adding up the FPI for each team’s opponents, both in-conference and non-conference. The teams with the highest combined opponent FPI when all was said and done can be determined to have the hardest strength of schedule. It’s not rocket science.

While doing the legwork, there were a number of takeaways that we found. First of all, it’s clear that some of the less-talented teams in the conference — Colorado, Arizona, Stanford — have some of the hardest schedules. Another takeaway is that teams in the Pac-12 North ended up having a lot easier schedules than those in the Pac-12 south because of the power balance between the two divisions. We also noticed that Oregon leads the way when it comes to the hardest non-conference strength of schedule, while UCLA has a cake-walk outside of Pac-12 play with a trio of cupcakes on the calendar.

Without further ado, let’s get into it. Here are the Pac-12 teams ranked by strength of schedule in 2022, starting with the easiest and going from there.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Non-Conference Opponents: Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama

Conference Opponents: Colorado, Washington, Utah, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, USC, California

Takeaways: When it comes to in-conference scheduling, there is nothing abnormal about the UCLA Bruins’ slate of games in 2022. In fact, they have the sixth-hardest Pac-12 schedule — quite literally the middle of the pack. However, their non-conference schedule is laughable. South Alabama? Alabama State? Bowling Green? What are we doing here? You take those three cupcakes at the start of the year and it’s quite clear that there should be no trouble in staying undefeated heading into Pac-12 play.

Non-Conference Opponents: Kent State, Portland State, Michigan State

Conference Opponents: Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State, Arizona, California, Oregon State, Oregon, Colorado, Washington State

Takeaways: It’s going to be really interesting to see whether or not the Huskies can bounce back this year under a new coaching staff and with a new quarterback at the helm. Their schedule is certainly set up for it. While the Michigan State game will be tough early on, there aren’t any other non-conference games that scare you, and they get to avoid teams like Utah and USC in the south. We will see how Washington fares with the Pac-12 North teams, but you would think that they can beat teams like California, Colorado, and Washington State…

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Non-Conference Opponents: Rice, Fresno State, Notre Dame

Conference Opponents: Stanford, Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State, Utah, Arizona, California, Colorado, UCLA

Takeaways: There are so many differing opinions on how good USC will be this year — ESPN ranked them at No. 12, USA TODAY Sports had them unranked — but if they’re going to succeed, they certainly have a schedule that is set up for it. In non-conference play, it is only Notre Dame who scares you, and conference games against Arizona State, Utah, and UCLA could give the Trojans trouble. In the north, USC doesn’t face Oregon, but they could struggle with Oregon State or Washington if either team makes the jump we expect this season.

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Non-Conference Opponents: Northern Arizona, Oklahoma State, Eastern Michigan

Conference Opponents: Utah, USC, Washington, Stanford, Colorado, UCLA, Washington State, Oregon State, Arizona

Takeaways: Arizona State has one of the easier non-conference schedules in the Pac-12 with a pair of cupcakes sandwiching a tough matchup against Oklahoma State. In the Pac-12, though, ASU will face the gauntlet of the southern division but should feel lucky that they don’t get Oregon when it comes to the Pac-12 North.

Non-Conference Opponents: UC Davis, UNLV, Notre Dame

Conference Opponents: Arizona, Washington State, Washington, Oregon, USC, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA

Takeaways: Pac-12 North teams are really at the mercy of their non-conference schedule since there’s really nobody outside of Oregon who scares you in the division. California’s non-conference bout with Notre Dame will be a tough one, for sure, but it wouldn’t come as a complete shock to see them be successful in the conference, with the only really tough games coming against Oregon, USC, and UCLA.

Non-Conference Opponents: Florida, Southern Utah, San Diego State

Conference Opponents: Arizona State, Oregon State, UCLA, USC, Washington State, Arizona, Stanford, Oregon, Colorado

Takeaways: Nothing really blows you away about Utah’s schedule this year. I will be very interested to see how they do with the Florida Gators early on, and there are a handful of opponents in the middle of the year — Oregon, UCLA, USC, Arizona State — that could cause some trouble. However, Utah is being considered a top-10 team ahead of the season, so they should be able to make it through the year without many slip-ups.

Non-Conference Opponents: Boise State, Fresno State, Montana State

Conference Opponents: USC, Utah, Stanford, Washington State, Colorado, Washington, California, Arizona State, Oregon

Takeaways: The Beavers’ non-conference schedule isn’t daunting — only the 5th hardest in the Pac-12 — but they got an unlucky draw when it comes to the cross-division games in the conference. USC, Utah, and Arizona State will all pose tough challenges for Oregon State, which has been trending upwards for the past couple of years. We will see if they can make that leap this season and start to down some of those better teams.

Non-Conference Opponents: Idaho, Wisconsin, Colorado State

Conference Opponents: Oregon, California, USC, Oregon State, Utah, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona, Washington

Takeaways: There’s been a common theme developing that some of the lesser teams in the conference are getting tougher schedules. Washington State should be able to stay afloat in their non-conference slate — Wisconsin will be a tough game — but their Pac-12 schedule is among the hardest in the conference. They have USC, Utah, and Arizona State from the south, and will have to deal with Oregon and Oregon State in the north.

Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports

Non-Conference Opponents: Georgia, Eastern Washington, BYU

Conference Opponents: Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, UCLA, California, Colorado, Washington, Utah, Oregon State

Takeaways: The Ducks by far have the toughest non-conference schedule in the Pac-12 this season, starting with the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1, and hosting the dangerous BYU Cougars in Week 3. When it comes to conference games, though, Oregon has the second-easiest slate in the Pac-12, thanks to a weaker Pac-12 north and no matchups with USC or Arizona State in the south. There will, of course, be a rematch against Utah, and a chance that we see those two in the Pac-12 Championship game once again if things play out the right way.

Non-Conference Opponents: San Diego State, Mississippi State, North Dakota State

Conference Opponents: California, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, USC, Utah, UCLA, Washington State, Arizona State

Takeaways: The Wildcats are going to be an interesting team to watch this fall as they introduce Jayden de Laura as the new starting quarterback, and an impressive recruiting class coming into the program. They’ve got their work cut out for them with this schedule though. While the non-conference slate isn’t terrible — Mississippi State will be though, and North Dakota State is potentially an upset — Arizona has the third-toughest conference schedule in the Pac-12. Things in the Pac-12 South are tough, with games against Utah, USC, UCLA, and Arizona State. On top of that, the Wildcats have to play Oregon and Washington in the north. The Wildcats may be a team on the rise, but it will be tough to do much with that schedule this year.

Non-Conference Opponents: TCU, Air Force, Minnesota

Conference Opponents: UCLA, Arizona, California, Oregon State, Arizona State, Oregon, USC, Washington, Utah

Takeaways: For a good team, the non-conference slate in front of Colorado wouldn’t look too daunting. TCU and Minnesota are good teams, but beatable, and Air Force is a win for most Power-5 schools. However, Colorado has struggled as of late, and been ravaged by the transfer portal this year. It wouldn’t be a shock to see them go 0-3 before getting to league play. After that, things don’t get any easier. The Buffaloes have the second-hardest conference schedule in the Pac-12, facing games against Utah, USC, UCLA, Arizona State, Oregon, and Washington — the top-6 ranked teams in the Pac-12. That’s a brutal draw.

Non-Conference Opponents: Colgate, Notre Dame, BYU

Conference Opponents: USC, Washington, Oregon, Oregon State, Arizona State, UCLA, Washington State, Utah, California

Takeaways: When it comes to strength of schedule, there’s no team that got a shorter end of the stick than Stanford, and by large margin. Let’s start with their conference slate, where they face every Pac-12 team but Colorado and Arizona — the two lowest-ranked teams in the conference. On top of that, they have a brutal non-conference schedule — second to only Oregon — where they face both Notre Dame and BYU. We can expect a bounceback from the Cardinal simply because they have an elite coaching staff and continually solid recruiting, but each and every week they may have a tough time finding a win on the calendar.

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